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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.