Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
